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Foreign Policy

Scenario 3: The gradual liberation

The political process in Belarus is driven by a willingness to be independent, civil society’s engagement, end of the resilience of Lukashenko’s regime. The opposition relocates its main focus from street pressure to economic sabotage. The recovery of massive strikes in different economic industries, from essential state enterprises (such as potash fertilizer producer ‘Belaruskali’) to […]

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Foreign Policy

Scenario 2: Strengthening of Lukashenko and assertive Russia

The narrative which associated Alexander Lukashenko with the state functioning prevails; the sustainability of state institutions for the sake of sovereignty becomes the central motive to stop protests. In February, the all-Belarusian National Assembly provided a plan for constitutional reform that on the one hand is intended to give more political wage to Lukashenko, and […]

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Foreign Policy

Ukraine bans several pro-Russian TV-channels. A start of political campaign.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has put into effect the National Security and Defense Council’s (NSDC) decision on the application of personal special economic and other restrictive measures. The corresponding decree No. 29/2021 has been published on the website of the President’s Office. 112 Ukraine, NewsOne and Zik TV channels are actually owned by Viktor Medvechuk, […]

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Foreign Policy

Scenario 1: Strengthening of Lukashenko and non-assertive Russia

The main issue affecting Belarus is frustration; the imminence of penalties cements security forces around Lukashenko. Lukashenko remains the main unifying figure on the political stage in Belarus. He continues the politics of blurring of Belarusian national identity through the marginalization of the nationalistic wing of the opposition. More than 33 thousand protestors are temporarily […]

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Foreign Policy

Moldovan presidential election. A chance for change.

Moldova was at crossroads again, as the presidential elections that took place on the first of  November, on the one hand, offer a little hope of overcoming old divisions, while on the other hand put the country onto the same separation line: namely, whether the state is with the West or the East. The first […]

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Foreign Policy

A stolen state: Another victory of Vladimir Putin

The latest parliamentary election which was held on the 30th of August 2020 in Montenegro has jeopardized not only the state’s democratic transformation, but also challenged international stability and security by posing a threat to NATO indirectly. The drama of the new political split lies in the fact that on the one hand, a de […]

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Democratic Empowerment and Transnational Threats Foreign Policy

Libya, Venezuela, or Ukraine: Three scenarios for further escalation in Belarus.

  Lukashenko’s appearance in Minsk wearing body armor and carrying the assault rifle, while welcoming and congratulating the Belarusian special police forces AMAP on the streets of the city was comprehensively covered by pro-government media. Also on the 27th of August Lukashenko in his address to the public has said once more that hybrid war […]